The End of Coffee is Near

Coffee production is currently under a serious threat that could drastically change the coffee we drink each day and potentially leave our cups dry. 

Coffee trees cover more than 11 million hectares of land throughout the tropics. Farmers harvest ripe emerald coffee cherries by hand and meticulously process them until the seed is ready to be roasted. The farmers who steward the world's coffee lands do nearly all their work by hand, from planting to harvesting and everything in between (save for mechanized farms in Brazil). These farmers get by on razor-thin margins and often sell coffee for less than their production price. But, the challenge of producing coffee doesn't stop there.

A freshly picked and perfectly ripe coffee cherries

Of the 124 known species of coffee, 99% of the coffee produced and consumed today comes from just two species: arabica and robusta.  The genetic diversity of coffee is remarkably low for a commodity of such importance. The diversity of genes within a plant population increases the possibility of adaptation to changing climate and disease pressure.  Coffee’s limited genetic diversity leaves the crop exceptionally susceptible to climate change and diseases.     

Climate

Coffee grows in a narrow strip from the Tropic of Cancer to the Tropic of Capricorn, known as “the bean belt.” Within this geographic climate zone, coffee trees thrive within specific microclimates consisting of the ideal altitude, rainfall, moderate temperature, and adequate shade.  Coffee trees are uniquely sensitive to climate and quickly decline in conditions outside their optimal range. Because of their sensitivity to climate, coffee trees will be heavily impacted by a changing climate. Within the next 25 years, their suitable climate is predicted to be reduced by half.

As coffee has become more intensively produced, shade has been removed, and heavy use of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides has become the norm. This has degraded the formerly rich ecological capital of these systems and further exacerbated climate change on a broader scale. 

While slowing a changing climate is a big problem to tackle, restoring microclimates to better health is not only possible, the results are seen quickly. Further, a stable microclimate for coffee (diverse shade trees, functional, living soil) can help buffer the effects of a changing climate.

Disease

In addition to climate change, there are several diseases that threaten coffee production. The most pressing is Coffee leaf rust (CLR), a pathogenic fungus that infects coffee leaves, essentially shutting down the plant’s ability to photosynthesize, produce nutrients, and sustain fruit. Left unchecked, CLR can decimate entire farms. 

A coffee leaf infected with Hemileia vastatrix – Coffee Leaf Rust

CLR was first described in 1870 in Sri Lanka (then known as Ceylon). Within 20 years of the arrival of CLR, the coffee industry completely collapsed. During this same period, coffee production was intensified, shade trees were removed, and coffee trees were packed densely together.  

In 2012 CLR spread to Latin America and reached epidemic proportions causing an estimated  $1 billion in crop loss and damage to trees. With livelihoods and entire economies at stake, governments and organizations rapidly deployed fungicides and removed infected trees, saving many farms and abating the spread. This event provided a major impetus for the further development of rust-resistant coffee varieties.   

By 2017 Honduras had aggressively adopted rust-resistant varieties.  One such variety accounted for 42% of all the coffee trees in the country. Despite those efforts, a rust outbreak hit the county and severely infected the rust-resistant varieties.   

Breeding coffee varieties is a slow, expensive process. Breeding starts by crossing genetically distinct parents, the offspring of which is an F1 hybrid.  These hybrids are known for their vigor, yet lack stability in their traits. Breeding a stable coffee variety can take upwards of 15 years. There are currently 40 known strains of rust, and likely many more on the way as fungi have a knack for rapid mutation.  What happens if the next super hybrid is developed over a 15 year period only to have rust quickly mutate and find a way around the rust-resistant genes? This is exactly what happened in Honduras in 2017.  Why are we doubling down on an expensive, ineffective technological fix when more viable solutions exist?

Low Hanging Fruit 

Coffee trees are native to the forests of Ethiopia, where they have grown and evolved amongst a diversity of shade trees.  As coffee production has become more industrialized, farms have removed shade trees, increased the density of coffee trees, and introduced a slew of chemical fertilizers, fungicides, and herbicides to maintain production. In essence, the coffee industry has destabilized the two pillars of successful coffee production: a diversity of shade trees and healthy soil. 

Coffee Agroforestry systems blend the diversity and structure of the forest with the intentionality of producing coffee. This essentially mimics the natural habitat of coffee trees but can be intentionally designed to include other fruits, nuts, honeybees, and even high-value hardwood trees.  Agroforestry systems provide additional revenue streams, resilient microclimates that buffer larger climatic events, and the innate disease and pest control of a complex ecology.

A thriving Coffee Agroforestry System at Finca San Jeronimo Miramar

The push to develop hybrid varieties has been without regard to the power of healthy, living soil and optimal plant nutrition.  Even the perfect hybrid tree is only as healthy and vibrant as the soil it is grown in and the nutrition it receives.  

Healthy soil has a regenerative effect that compounds over time to create more life within a system. This works on a scale of weeks, months, and years.  Breeding coffee trees works on a scale of decades, with uncertain and deteriorating results. Building healthy soils and growing vibrant crops is farmer-driven, specific to each place, and knowledge-intensive. 

Breeding can and should be part of the solution, however, it is in no way a silver bullet.  Betting the future of coffee on the success of hybrids creates a massive risk, further consolidates power in the hand of a few and broadens the chasms between the on-farm reality and those who benefit financially or professionally from breeding programs. 

For coffee to continue as we know it, farmer-led agroforestry systems, built on a foundation of soil and plant health, must become the norm. This can reverse a trend of farmland degradation, improve coffee quality, provide farmers with much need additional revenue streams, lessen and even eradicate disease pressure, and contribute to climate change mitigation on a local and global scale. 

This movement is already underway.  But, more people need to know about it. More coffee roasters need to understand this issue so that they can buy coffee from farms like Finca San Jeronimo, a regenerative coffee farm in Guatemala. More consumers need to know that their coffee purchase makes a difference. And more of the voices working within this movement, on the ground need to be heard so we can change the discourse in the coffee industry echo chambers.  Your future cup of coffee depends on it.